2024 Election Forecast: Biden's Strong Lead
538 Predicts Biden Will Win Popular Vote
It's Not a Popularity Contest, But a Referendum on "Least Bad" Option
According to 538's forecast, Biden has a 64-in-100 chance of winning the national popular vote. The forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign data, and it is updated every day. Our model combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country.
The average of the polls for each candidate is updated for each poll, taking into account the poll's recency, sample size, methodology, and house effects. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. You can click on states on the interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast.
The election is likely to be less a popularity contest than a referendum on which man Americans think is the least bad option. Our election forecast shows the chances of each candidate winning the popular vote and the electoral college, as well as the chances of a tie.
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